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| #9659 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 LISA IS CONTINUING TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS COMBINED SYSTEM IS NOW BEING PRODUCED BY THE CIRCULATION OF LISA... AND NOT THE DISTURBANCE. BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. LISA'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE KARL. AS KARL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD...ITS INFLUENCE ON LISA WILL DIMINISH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER LISA SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.2N 41.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 13.3N 41.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 13.4N 42.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 13.6N 43.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 14.2N 44.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 45.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.0N 47.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 48.0W 70 KT |
