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| #9668 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 KARL HAS CONTINUED ITS INTENSIFYING TREND WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE BECOMING COLDER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO JUMPED WITH A PAIR OF 6.0'S FROM TAFB AND SAB THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS STILL A BIT RAGGED BUT KARL APPEARS TO HAVE REGAINED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KARL IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS WITH GENERALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS PROBABLE WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 21C. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING ABOUT 030/20. SOME ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... WITH A BEND TO THE NORTH EXPECTED AS KARL BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE TROUGH FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN GUNA AND THE GFS. WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED AT 72 HOURS BASED ON GFS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 31.7N 45.8W 110 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 34.5N 44.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 39.5N 42.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 44.5N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z 49.5N 38.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z 58.5N 22.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0600Z 65.5N 5.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0600Z...ABSORBED |
