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| #9720 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 70 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 ...IVAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS. THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 92.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
