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| #9727 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 THE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE EYE FEATURE IS QUITE RAGGED AND VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT WEAKENING COULD BE EVEN FASTER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 33.8N 43.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 37.6N 42.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 42.9N 41.8W 85 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0000Z 47.4N 40.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 37.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
