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| #9728 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD-FREE EYE WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS A CONSENSUS T5.5...OR 102 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/4. JEANNE IS SURROUNDED BY HIGH PRESSURE EVERYWHERE BUT THE SOUTH...SO THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEFINITIVE MOVEMENT THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESSURES TO THE WEST OF JEANNE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS IVAN MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN SHORTLY. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN A RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE BUILDING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JEANNE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS NUDGED WESTWARD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...WHICH WERE FIRST TWO MODELS AND THE MOST CONSISTENT ONES TO INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL TRICKY. OCEAN CONDITIONS NEAR JEANNE ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY 24-48 HOURS...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL RIGHT NOW. GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 25.6N 69.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 25.6N 70.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.6N 72.6W 95 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 25.7N 74.6W 100 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 76.8W 100 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 27.3N 80.2W 95 KT...NR FLORIDA EAST COAST 96HR VT 27/1200Z 30.5N 81.5W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 45 KT...INLAND |
