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| #974217 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 11.Jul.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 ...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE SOON... ...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 88.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late Friday. Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today and Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which has resulted in flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
