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| #974638 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 13.Jul.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 93.0W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to east of Grand Isle has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle to Cameron * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, and this general motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across central Louisiana tonight, through northern Louisiana on Sunday, and over Arkansas Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life- threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist into Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Sunday across portions of Louisiana, southern and western Mississippi, and southern and eastern Arkansas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
