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| #974654 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 14.Jul.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 100 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 ...BARRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 93.2W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The Tropical Storm Warning from east of Morgan City to Grand Isle, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning from the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake Pontchartrain has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, and this general motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across central and northern Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 6 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as the storm moves inland. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life- threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist through the morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle during the next few hours. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across portions of Louisiana, southern and western Mississippi, and southern and eastern Arkansas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
