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| #974671 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 14.Jul.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data, but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and southeast of the center. The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous one, due to the initial position being further west than anticipated. Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central Louisiana. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry`s path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
