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| #9766 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 71 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z THU SEP 23 2004 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 93.0W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 93.0W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.0N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.4N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.2N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 96.4W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.2W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 93.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART |
