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| #9776 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 WHILE THE EYE OF JEANNE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT... SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 90 KT. THE NEXT RECON FLIGHT INTO JEANNE WILL BE AROUND 24/06Z THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/06. JEANNE HAS BEEN WOBBLING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 9 HOURS...BUT A TURN TOWARD TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE YEAR FOR WRAPAROUND RIDGES...AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT JEANNE IS CAUGHT IN SUCH A PATTERN. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG RIDGE/HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT COULD DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE JEANNE COULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE ETA...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND BRING JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH LANDFALL BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST BASED ON THE GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVING INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO WEAK...BY ABOUT 20 METERS AT 500 MB. USERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND BECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN IMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. A 60-HR POINT WOULD BE CLOSE TO 26.7N 79.8W WITH A 100-KT INTENSITY. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL JEANNE GETS NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW JEANNE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...83-84F...LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.9N 70.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.9N 71.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.8N 73.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.8N 75.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.8W 105 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 27.9N 81.3W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z 31.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND |
