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| #9786 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 71A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 ...IVAN ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST...JUST SOUTH OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING THE CENTER OF IVAN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH. RADAR FROM LAKE CHARLES INDICATES THAT VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE RAINBANDS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IVAN MOVES INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO THE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS. THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE OCCURING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER IS MAKING LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N... 93.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
