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| #979586 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 27.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 60.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 60.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles through the morning, and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
