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| #979681 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 27.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 62.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF DOMINICA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
