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| #979741 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 28.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 63.4W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Dorian is then forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas by Thursday night, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
