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| #979806 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 28.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center. An Air Force plane just estimated a minimum central pressure of 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely to occur. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila |
