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| #979891 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 28.Aug.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model output. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian`s center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch |
