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#979957 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 29.Aug.2019)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 67.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 67.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 67.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN