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| #980178 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 31.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
