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| #980612 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 02.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Dorian continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island this evening. The hurricane still has an impressive presentation in satellite and radar images, however, there have been occasional dry slots observed in the western part of the eyewall. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided excellent data in Dorian this evening, and based primarily on the flight-level wind data from the aircraft, the initial intensity of Dorian is set to 115 kt. The westernmost outer rain bands are reaching the east coast of south Florida and producing gusty winds. The major hurricane has been stationary much of the day. The reason the cyclone has moved very little is because it is caught in weak steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and northwest and a trough to its north. This weak flow should result in a very slow and likely erratic northwest drift through at least early Tuesday. After that time, the models are in general agreement that the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify. This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to move a little faster to the north on Wednesday and to the northeast on Thursday and Friday. The NHC track forecast remains consistent and continues to show the core of Dorian offshore, but dangerously close to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next 3 days or so. This track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and it is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, Dorian is likely to produce strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge along a portion of the U.S. east coast from Florida through the Carolinas. The intensity models are in agreement that Dorian should slowly lose strength during the next several days due to a gradual increase in wind shear and perhaps drier air. Regardless of the details of the intensity forecast, the bottom line is that Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks very near the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Key Messages: 1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian`s center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 26.9N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 27.1N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 30.6N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 33.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 38.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 45.4N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
