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| #980696 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 03.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE... ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Lantana, Florida has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC * North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could spread northward within the watch through Thursday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
