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| #980698 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 03.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h. The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to south Texas. Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
