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| #980810 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 03.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019 A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was farther south than previously thought, and that the strongest winds of 30 kt are within a band of deep convection over the northern semicircle. Based on these data and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, 30 kt will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression will be in a marginally favorable environment of 10 to 15 kt of shear and over SSTs just over 26C for the next few days. Some slight strengthening could occur during this time frame, and it is reflected in the official forecast, bringing the intensity to 50 kt by Thursday night. After that time, the cyclone will begin to move over warmer waters, but into a drier environment with some increase in the wind shear. It is difficult to know at this point in time as to what effect these conflicting conditions may have on the cyclone`s intensity. Therefore, beyond 48 hours the intensity is held in a steady state. The official intensity forecast is just a tad higher than the previous one, and is very near the various intensity consensus models. The initial motion is 320/07 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period on the eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending from Africa to the eastern Atlantic. An increase in forward motion is expected late this week, as the cyclone gets caught in the southeast flow between the ridge to its east and a developing mid- to upper-level low to the west. The official forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous one through 72 hours due to the adjustment of the initial position. Thereafter the track forecast is little changed and close to the consensus aid TVCX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.1N 32.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.7N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 23.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 27.1N 39.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 31.7N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 35.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto |
