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| #980910 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 04.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Fernand is farther north than previously estimated. Most of the deep convection has moved inland and is located to the north and west of the center due to easterly shear. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased and the area where earlier scatterometer data showed the strongest winds were located has moved inland, so the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt. Little change in strength is predicted before the center moves inland later today. After that, rapid weakening should occur while Fernand moves farther inland tonight, and the system should dissipate over the higher terrain of northeastern Mexico by Thursday. The initial motion of the system is a somewhat uncertain 295/7 kt. The cyclone should continue on a westward to west-northwestward track to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge located over the south-central United States. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position, but still lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of northeastern Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that 9 to 12 inches of rainfall may have already occurred across portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 24.2N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.7N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
