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| #9811 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 KARL IS NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE MORE OBVIOUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN. CI NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5...5.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A COMPROMISE OF 80 KT. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 963 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THIS PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP IS ALLOWABLE FOR A HIGH-LATITUDE STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT KARL IS IN THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF GREENLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECTLY FORECASTING THE HURRICANE'S RECENT INTENSITY TRENDS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. KARL IS STILL ACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/26. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL THEN MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER BERG/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 38.7N 41.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 42.6N 40.9W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0000Z 47.5N 39.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1200Z 52.2N 35.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0000Z 57.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
