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| #981129 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 05.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 Gabrielle is struggling due to persistent southeasterly shear. The low-level center is completely exposed and has become quite elongated, and the nearest deep convection is displaced almost 60 n mi to the north. And yet, ASCAT-A and B data at 1200 UTC revealed that the winds have not yet decreased. Both passes showed winds of 40-45 kt in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone, so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. For the next 36 h or so, Gabrielle will remain in a very unfavorable environment, and the wind shear is actually expected to increase according to SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models. Beyond that time, the shear is forecast to decrease and Gabrielle will have a window in which it could strengthen over the weekend. By early next week, the cyclone is expected to move over much colder SSTs and will likely begin the process of becoming post-tropical, so further strengthening is unlikely. The new NHC forecast is generally close to the previous one, but now allows for some slight short-term weakening of Gabrielle, given the hostile current environment. Almost no change was required to the track forecast, which is merely an update to the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move generally northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 3 or 4 days before it recurves ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.8N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.8N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.4N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.4N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 42.0N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
