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| #981132 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 05.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 The latest NOAA Doppler radar data, along with Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter reports, indicate that Dorian has an well- defined eye with a diameter of about 40 n mi, with the northwestern edge of the eyewall not far from the South Carolina coast. The Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased some since 12 h ago, accompanied by a rise in the central pressure. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt. The central pressure of 958 mb is based partly on data from NOAA buoy 41004, which is currently inside the eye. Dorian has nudged eastward during the past several hours and the initial motion is now 020/7. The hurricane is now moving into the mid-latitude westerlies, and during the next several hours it is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed. This should bring the eye near or over the coasts of eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 72 h. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous forecast. Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves along the South and North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin around 48 h and be complete by 72 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After 72 h, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic. The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian`s center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding will become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia today into tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 32.5N 79.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 33.5N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 40.1N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 59.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
