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| #981341 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 06.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 74.8W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of Bar Harbor, Maine, to Eastport, Maine. The Hurricane Warning has been discontinued west of Bogue Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Salter Path NC to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Francois to Boat Harbour A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move away from the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through Saturday. After that, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). About an hour ago, a Weatherflow station at Avon Sound, North Carolina reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a wind gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should end along portions of the North Carolina coast during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions should continue on the southeastern coast of Virginia for the next several hours, and are expected to spread across other portions of the the Mid-Atlantic states later today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon Hurricane conditions are possible in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of the Canadian Maritime and Atlantic areas Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches. Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches. Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
