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| #981403 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 PM 06.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 54A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...DORIAN RACING NORTHEATWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 71.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Fenwick Island DE, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson`s Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Parson`s Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone`s Cove A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusts of tropical-storm-force could still occur over portions of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states, but these winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the North Carolina coast will continue to recede throughout the evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
