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| #981421 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 06.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection has persisted mainly over the northern semicircle of Gabrielle since this afternoon, but has been trying to move a little closer to the low-level center. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB suggests slight strengthening has occurred since the previous advisory, and a recent scatterometer pass measured a cluster of 45-kt winds. Assuming some slight undersampling in that area by the scatterometer, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The shear that continues to impact Gabrielle is forecast to decrease through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the cyclone will me moving over waters near 29 C. And, although some dry air will continue to surround the circulation, the cyclone should be able to gradually strengthen over the next few days due to the other favorable environmental conditions. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs will cause the cyclone to weaken. An approaching mid-latitude trough, courtesy of Dorian, will help transition Gabrielle to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The only notable change to the intensity forecast from the previous advisory was to make Gabrielle a hurricane a little earlier, and the official advisory is very near the corrected consensus HCCA. Gabrielle has been moving to the northwest, or 320/16 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur on Saturday as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle builds westward. The aforementioned mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north on Sunday night, then accelerate the cyclone to the northeast from Monday through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 29.3N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto |
