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| #981452 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 07.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 68.1W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and the Lower North Shore Quebec. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke`s Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone`s Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke`s Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary`s Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 68.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds. Thereafter, Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern Canada by tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A NOAA buoy at Nantucket Shoals, Massachusetts, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A Weatherflow observation on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts during the next several hours. These conditions should spread into the warning area in Maine by this afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
