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| #981650 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 09.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 Deep convection associated with Gabrielle has become somewhat less organized overnight with the center located near the northeastern portion of the coldest cloud tops. There is still banding present over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation but it has become fragmented. Gabrielle has likely peaked in intensity, and the latest satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Little change in intensity is expected today while Gabrielle remains over warm water and within a moderate shear environment. By tonight, decreasing SSTs and increasing southerly shear should begin to cause gradual weakening. Shortly after that time, the global models indicate Gabrielle will become embedded within a baroclinic zone and become extratropical. The extratropical low is predicted to slowly weaken and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system over the northeastern Atlantic in a little more than 3 days. Gabrielle has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 015/14 kt. Gabrielle should turn northeastward today and begin to accelerate ahead of a broad mid-level trough approaching the central Atlantic. Once the cyclone is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected. There is good agreement among the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast track remains between the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 37.7N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 39.7N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 42.2N 42.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 44.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 48.1N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 55.8N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
