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| #982683 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 17.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
