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| #982911 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 18.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant. Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of Jerry`s intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest, north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
