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| #983346 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 21.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively, which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with a 38-kt surface wind. Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday, followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains excellent agreement among the track models on this developing scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda, the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt, re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart |
