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| #983463 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 21.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Jerry`s center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now developing just to the southeast of the center. With no significant change to the storm`s structure, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while interacting with the trough, and it`s likely that extratropical transition will at least commence while this system is over the western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period. The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge, interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3 onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between 48-72, resulting from Jerry`s expected interaction with the trough, little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 24.1N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
