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| #983536 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 22.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a little above most of the model guidance. Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
