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| #983581 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 22.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level center is near the western side of the main area of deep convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period, so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a little above the intensity model consensus. The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 26.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
