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| #983616 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 22.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening. Microwave data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still 55 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been steady at 993 mb. The initial wind radii have been modified slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass. The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough. The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during the next several days, which in combination with drier air and decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual weakening during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to become in better agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance. Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical- storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday. 2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 27.4N 67.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 31.2N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 32.4N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 35.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 37.3N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 38.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
