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| #983617 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 22.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has developed enough circulation and organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The convection is currently organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an additional smaller band to the southeast. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 270/14. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4 days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in strength from 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
