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| #983662 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 23.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look. The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected- consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at that time. Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
