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| #983746 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 23.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions. Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just 5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period. This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 28.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
