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| #983829 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 24.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved bands and a newly formed central dense overcast. In fact, an overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a very small central core. The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB classification. Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and weak/moderate shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt during the previous 24 hours. Thus the intensity forecast is raised from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance. It is worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A break in the ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
