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| #983910 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 24.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred miles of the center. This is likely due to a combination of strong shear and drier air. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter observations. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection, will likely find a weaker cyclone. The numerical guidance indicates that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over the next few days. Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less, and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also shown by the global models. Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt. Jerry should pass through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight. A broad mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 31.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 32.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 33.7N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 34.4N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
