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| #983979 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 25.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it no longer poses any threat to the island. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that Jerry`s wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well. A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
