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| #983981 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 25.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday, however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time. Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central Atlantic through the rest of this week. No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 13.6N 33.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos |
