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| #9845 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 24.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 KARL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED...RAGGED...LOW CENTER AND AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...ALL INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DOWN TO 55 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A GENEROUS 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS. INITIAL MOTION IS AN ACCELERATING 020/26. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY DAY 3. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 40.8N 41.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 44.5N 40.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0600Z 49.4N 37.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1800Z 54.5N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0600Z 59.2N 19.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
