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| #984573 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 29.Sep.2019) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas on Monday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday in the Azores. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
