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| #984710 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 30.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses. The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions. Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore. It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
