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| #984875 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 02.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday. The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone is well underway. The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the intensity guidance. Although the system is forecast to become extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe. Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic. Then, the cyclone is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward the ECMWF forecast. Lorenzo`s expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 Key Messages: 1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later today. 2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 42.3N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
